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Everything posted by RFK/JFKfan

  1. RFK/JFKfan

    Ranking the Potential Democratic Candidates

    Indeed, and Taylor's body was exhumed for the purposes of this theory. This was the inspiration for the Simpsons episode 'Lisa the Iconoclast'.
  2. RFK/JFKfan

    Ranking the Potential Democratic Candidates

    Except of course that life expectancy was 20 years or more lower in nineteenth century USA than it is now. Higher infant mortality rates do make the statistics on this somewhat misleading, but nonetheless, fifteen presidents have passed away prior to reaching the age of 70 without the assistance of an assassin's bullet. Of these, fourteen (or thirteen if you discount Theodore Roosevelt, who did suffer at the hands of a gunman several years prior to his death) were born prior to 1900. Eleven presidents have reached the age of 80. This list is much more mixed, as it includes H. W. Bush, Carter, Ford, Reagan and Nixon, but it also includes both of the Adams presidents, Jefferson, and Madison. Most of the early presidents, however, hardly came from the most humble of backgrounds. On the point about Lincoln and FDR, people didn't worry about their health for similar reasons as to why people didn't question the sexual orientation of James Buchanan, or the faithfulness of Warren Harding to his wife; it simply wasn't something that people either had much information on nor cared about, as the media wasn't as tabloidised as it is now. As for cognition problems, here is an interesting article on dementia in the nineteenth century: http://www.dementiatoday.net/article/dementia-during-the-nineteenth-century/ A key paragraph: This is qualified somewhat by a later paragraph, which states that selection bias may have played somewhat of a role, but it's probably the case that concerns over mental health were not as dominated by age th as they are now.
  3. RFK/JFKfan

    Who is a Better World Leader Poll?

    Thatcher's cabinets were also much more impressive than May's. May's have included Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Boris Johnson, Gavin Williamson, Matthew Hancock, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox. Thatcher's included Geoffrey Howe, William Whitelaw, Lord Carrington, Douglas Hurd, James Prior, Michael Heseltine, Keith Joseph, Nigel Lawson, Norman Tebbit, and John Major.
  4. RFK/JFKfan

    Ranking the Potential Democratic Candidates

    Being a 70-something today is roughly equivalent to being a 40-/50-something in the time of Abraham Lincoln (who was 56 when he first took office). Putting aside age, however, many of the greatest presidents suffered from numerous health issues during their presidencies - FDR, Lincoln, JFK, Reagan, Eisenhower, to name the more obvious examples, and they encompass a fairly wide range of ages. Unless someone wishes to correct me, the likes of Buchanan, Pierce, W. Bush (also a fairly wide range of ages) etc had relatively smooth states of health during their times in office. As I said in another thread, political nous is the most important factor in a successful candidate, and probably also in a successful politician. Experience/location/age/ideology/health/position/ pale in comparison.
  5. RFK/JFKfan

    Who is a Better World Leader Poll?

    Putin easily outranks the rest of these in terms of political ability. Xi is a distant second. Merkel peaked around five years ago. Francis has little business being on here, given that he's primarily a religious figure. Bibi and Assad are mid-rankers, perhaps upper middle on their good days. Kim is lucky that he's leader of North Korea. In just about any other country the bureaucrats would walk all over him. Trudeau is vastly inferior to his father, both politically and intellectually. He's just a telegenic, mushy centre-left liberal. Macron's politics are similar to Trudeau's, but he has perhaps somewhat more potential. May is quite clearly the most inept of this bunch, other than Trump. Trump is however a better campaigner than May.
  6. RFK/JFKfan

    What Traits Should the Democratic Challenger have?

    Political nous. As long as they have that then nothing else really matters. LBJ had it, JFK had it, Reagan had it, Nixon had it, FDR had it, TR had it, Bill Clinton had it, Abraham Lincoln had it. Some of those were charismatic, others less so. Some were telegenic, some not really telegenic at all. Some were quite old, others quite young. Some were senators, some were governors, others were vice presidents. Some were from the South, others from the North, others from elsewhere. Some were liberal, others moderate or conservative. But they were all elected, sometimes against significant odds. And all achieved a lot in office.
  7. RFK/JFKfan

    Ranking the Potential Democratic Candidates

    I disagree. Very few people vote on the basis of the candidates' age, and arguably more are willing to vote against someone on the basis of being young and untested than of being old and seasoned, hence Reagan's quip to Mondale in one of the 1984 debates. Nancy Pelosi needs to be replaced, however. Not because of her age, but because she is a proven failure at winning House majorities, just as William Jennings Bryan (whose career peaked at a relatively young age) was a proven failure at winning presidential elections.
  8. RFK/JFKfan

    2020 Candidate Outlook

    Both McCain and Romney moved to the right in order to get the nomination, although in the case of Romney he was perhaps slightly more moderate in his 2012 run than in his 2008 run.
  9. RFK/JFKfan

    A Frightening Vision Just Hit Me

    Canada isn't notably 'left' - it's main social democratic party has never been in government at the federal level. The Liberal Party is fundamentally a party without principle - it can be left, right or centre depending on time and province. The Conservative Party is also to the right of most other First World mainstream centre-right parties.
  10. RFK/JFKfan

    A Frightening Vision Just Hit Me

    'Experience' isn't necessarily re-assuring. There's a good chance that Trump would be worse if he had served twenty years in Congress prior to his presidency.
  11. RFK/JFKfan

    Personal Attributes of Harold MacMillan

    My ratings for each would be: Churchill - 5 Attlee - 2 (perhaps 1.5 if possible) Eden - 3 Macmillan - 3 Douglas-Home - 1.5 Wilson 3.5/4 (certainly a 4 in 1964) Heath - 2.5/3 (hardly a charming personality but could speak passionately on his day) Callaghan - 3.5/4 (underrated in terms of his charisma; very avuncular but wasn't dealt a great hand as PM) Thatcher - 4 Major - 2/2.5 (slightly higher than one might expect due to his soapbox campaign of 1992; of course it all went downhill after that) Blair - 4 Brown - 2 (he can give an excellent speech when he wants to, hence he's not lower) Cameron - 3/3.5 May - 1.5
  12. RFK/JFKfan

    Personal Attributes of Harold MacMillan

    As far as post-war PMs go, I'd rate Macmillan above Attlee, Douglas-Home, Heath, Major, Brown and May in charisma terms. In many ways he is quite similar to Cameron - from a well-to-do background, on the centre-left of the Conservative Party and managed to lead the party to a net increase in seats as the governing party. Both were also succeeded by vastly inferior media performers (Douglas-Home in Macmillan's case and May in Cameron's case).
  13. RFK/JFKfan

    Massachusetts 1994 Senate Election what ifs poll

    Preferably all of them! I'm all for as many playable candidates as possible in any and all scenarios.
  14. RFK/JFKfan

    2010: The True Cleggmania

    Something like 75% of the parliamentary seats on just over two-fifths of the popular vote, and around one-quarter of those on the electoral register. Somehow I think the Lib Dems would drop their support for electoral reform after a result like that.
  15. RFK/JFKfan

    Is America electing the coolest guy as President?

    No way was Dewey more charismatic than Truman, even if he was better-looking. The main reason for Truman closing the gap is because he ran a more energetic campaign, whereas Dewey's was bland and uninspiring. One great anecdote I've read about the 1948 campaign is the stark contrast in their styles of speeches - Truman would speak along the lines of "hey guys, what don't ya give a huge round of applause to my wife?". In contrast, Dewey would say "It is now my honour to introduce to you my wife." In other words, Dewey's way of speaking was much more uptight and snooty. Dewey was essentially a middle-of-the-road New York politician along the lines of Nelson Rockefeller, Andrew Cuomo and Michael Bloomberg. Yes, capable of winning many votes, and yes, a competent administrator, but not the kind of politician to bring out huge crowds. The most charismatic of the 1930s and 1940s' Republican nominees was, by some distance, Wendell Willkie, although he still had little compared to FDR. Of course the most obvious example of 'the more charismatic candidate losing' would surely be 1896.
  16. RFK/JFKfan

    Feature You'd Most Like to See

    In PMI UK, I'd love for 'vote share changes/swings' to be added to election nights. In each seat, the changes for each party in percentage terms compared to the previous (real-life) election would be displayed next to the candidates, with changes also shown on regional and national levels. For example, Labour won 47.2% compared to the Tories' 32.8% in Walsall South in the real-life 2015 election. If in the 2017 PMI UK scenario Labour win 56.9% and the Tories 31.2%, then it would show Labour 56.9% (+9.7%), Conservatives 31.2% (-1.6%). This is a key feature of televised election night coverage in the UK.
  17. RFK/JFKfan

    Labour threats

    Corbyn's personal ratings are no worse than Thatcher's in 1979, Heath's in 1970 or even Cameron's in 2010. Indeed, Callaghan famously had a 19-point lead over Thatcher on the question of preferred prime minister on the eve of the 1979 election. Sustained positive personal ratings are actually quite an unusual thing; when opposition parties win elections it is often a case of a default victory rather than of any great enthusiasm. I mean, it's much easier to imagine a voter who votes for a party despite not really liking its leader ("best of a bad bunch") than it is to imagine a voter who doesn't vote for a party despite actually liking its leader.
  18. RFK/JFKfan

    The death of ukip.

    It's unfair to single out the UK. Western politics in general has taken a rather sour turn in the past few years. Although, paradoxically, the two main parties received their highest combined vote share in 2017 since 1970, despite neither of them exactly being popular.
  19. RFK/JFKfan

    Red Ken wins

    New Labour is certainly better (from a left-wing POV) than the Labour governments that both Australia and New Zealand had in the 1980s.
  20. RFK/JFKfan

    Election Night

    President Forever 2008 did have an election night which included state projections ("we are calling ME for X", we are calling CO for Y" etc) but the problem with it was that it often called states prematurely. If, say, a few percent of the vote was in and one candidate was ahead by more than about 8% then that candidate would be projected the winner. This led to a bizarre bug where if the other candidate wound up as the victor in that state and this caused the overall national outcome to flip, there would be an avalanche of messages of "we are taking back our call". Another issue was that it would refuse to call states until around 99% was reporting if the margin was less than around 8%. In terms of U.S. elections then yeah, President Elect probably had the best. Most games of this kind simply just report the full state-by-state results without any trickling in. The old Randy Chase series did this, as did that obscure and unfinished Election Day game from around a decade ago. But election nights for Prime Minister Infinity UK are very well done as the results come in pretty much exactly as they do in real-life. The only thing missing is a swingometer, a Dimbleby and some grilling interviewer.
  21. RFK/JFKfan

    Weird and Wonderful What-Ifs

    You mean like how his father was until the 1950s? It's not unusual at all anyway for children to have differing political views from their parents. As for the topic, there are loads of interesting failed primary candidates from the 80s and 90s who are fairly interesting and would be so in today's environment. Jesse Jackson, Gary Hart, Pat Buchanan, Pete Wilson etc.
  22. RFK/JFKfan

    Three old scenario (P4E 2008) requests

    Hello, I first discovered what was then known as President Forever in 2008 so obviously I have experienced many scenarios over the years. There are three that I recall fondly that don't seem to be available on the campaigns page or in the forum. - A 2016 scenario that was made many years before 2016. It had many 'stars' of the future, and it also had a populistic third-party candidate with Martin Sheen as its default pic. Funnily enough, its issues included such things as human cloning, robotics etc. - An expanded 2000 scenario. It notably had several celebrities as alternative candidates, including Clint Eastwood on the GOP side, Warren Beatty on the Democratic side and some guy called Donald Trump for the Reform Party, as well as Ross Perot. - A 'Ruler of Time' scenario. Basically this was a battle between various notable figures from throughout history, such as Stalin, Caesar, Vlad the Impaler etc. Does anyone have these still? This thread can be a general one for those with similar requests/memories.
  23. RFK/JFKfan

    Three old scenario (P4E 2008) requests

    He did make quite significant progress on it, to the extent that it was playable anyway. I'd really like to see who all of the candidates were on that 2016 scenario and compare to real life. I can recall Schweitzer, Andrew Cuomo, and maybe Susana Martinez but no one else (other than, as said, that fictional third-party guy). At that time it was assumed that Hillary Clinton was finished with presidential politics so I doubt she was in it.
  24. RFK/JFKfan

    Burnley Borough Council Election 2006

    Was also (probably) the least liberal Lib Dem held seat in the 2010-2015 parliament, aside from possibly Birmingham Yardley or Redcar. It's often forgotten that a lot of the pre-coalition Lib Dem vote came from people who weren't liberal at all or obsessed with things like Euro integration, electoral reform etc and mainly voted Lib Dem because they weren't the two main parties. And for a non-Brit not hearing of Burnley, that isn't really surprising is it? There are vastly populated cities (with hundreds of thousands of people) in the United States that even Americans haven't heard of. Virtually everyone in the UK has heard of cities such as Coventry and Reading because it's a much smaller country.
  25. RFK/JFKfan

    UK Constituency Elections

    With the new popular vote feature, making U.S. senate, governor etc elections is much easier. I figured that it might also be neat to do some notable constituency elections. Waaaaay back in the day, the user Treasurer of the PC made some good Westminster constituency scenarios, mostly by-elections if I remember correctly. In terms of the upcoming general election, the following would make quite interesting scenarios imo. Feel free to add your own suggestions. Moray - Can the SNP's Westminster leader Angus Robertson hold off a Tory challenge? Vauxhall - Can the maverick Brexiteer Labour MP Kate Hoey win her seemingly safe seat again, with the Lib Dems fiercely targeting the seat? Twickenham - Will the heavyweight former Lib Dem cabinet minister Vince Cable win back the seat that he so shockingly lost in 2015? Ynys Mon - In one of the most interesting constituencies in Wales, will Albert Owen defy the odds and continue the seat's taste for re-electing incumbents (no incumbent MP has lost this seat since 1951)? Birmingham Yardley - A battle between two outspoken characters in Labour's Jess Phillips and the Liberal Democrats' John Hemming. Who will win?