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  1. 6 points
    That's a pretty cool idea! It would be fun connecting with other campaigners for a game.
  2. 5 points
  3. 4 points
    I'd put it as a Gingrich edge... Rasmussen shows a close race. Other polls how a Gingrich edge. I'm going to say a Gingrich edge whichs means... 60% chance of Gingrich winning 40% chance of Romney winning There also comes into question which candidate does the average voter feel safest with... That's why Paul did so bad... We need to be honest, it takes guts to wear a RonPaul bumper sticker and to vote for him.
  4. 4 points
    If Romney had major problems in his past, we would have seen it already. On a side, Romney did better than McCain did in New Hamshire 2008. Romney will probably win most if not all February contests giving him momemtum to win on Super Tuesday. Romney is the strong leader and slighly more conservative than weak failed leadership of Obama. Romney is the only person who can stop Gingrich. Romney also has the backing of the establishment and that is the only way for a Republican to win the nomination. Gingrich's insane breakdown makes him extremely dangerous to the future America.
  5. 4 points
    I'd say that is true. I think the opposing candidate's strengths and weaknesses should play a role in it, but I think your observation is a good one.
  6. 4 points
    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fau the economy didn't get much better http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fav if the economy improved somewhat significantly
  7. 4 points
    Even if I was, you haven't given me or anyone else a reason on this forum NOT to believe in what I have said. I am waiting for you to release your own interpretation of the study... like you said, it is "very open to interpretation". So what do you interpret, magician? I was citing factual numbers and averaging out his tendencies.
  8. 4 points
    Harry Truman (Democratic) and George Bush I (Republican) should definitely be in there. Truman influenced U.S. foreign policy for the Cold War and the next 45 years. After Bush lost to Clinton, the economy improved and he left office with 56% approval rating.
  9. 4 points
    Romney could do so well in South Carolina, he could possibly win all 50 states in the primary.
  10. 4 points
    Mitt Romney is in good shape: he is still the presumptive nominee, he is going to win New Hampshire, and John McCain who won New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida endorsed Romney. Romney's SuperPac will start running ads against Santorum and will crush him. There is no evidence that Romney will automaticly lose South Carolina if Gingrich stays in (social conservatives will split the vote like in Iowa) and in Florida where Romney will do better than in South Carolina. Also Rick Perry only has about 6% support in South Carolina, so it may not have as big as impact as you say it will.
  11. 4 points
    May I propose a ceasefire? I think Christie would be a great choice for Romney. And he has said that he is interested and willing to consider.
  12. 4 points
    I still think it will be Rubio, but if it is not Rubio, it will be Christie. Paul Ryan wants to privatize Medicare which is political suicide which may cost Romney the election if Ryan was chosen.
  13. 4 points
    Name: Al Gore Party: Democratic State: Tennessee Title: Vice President Atributes - L-4…I-3…E-4…IF-4…C-2…S-5…D-3 Name: John McCain Party: Republican State: Arizona Title: Senator Atributes - L-4…I-4…E-4…IF-4…C-4…S-3…D-4
  14. 4 points
    That was fast! http://mittromney.com/embed/video/new-captain
  15. 4 points
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/jon-huntsmans-path-to-victory/
  16. 4 points
    The Republican Establishment is giving Jon Huntsman a second look. http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/12/opinion/avlon-huntsman/index.html
  17. 4 points
    Using Nate Silver's model and applying the stats I did in my previous post... Following how much Obama usually loses over the course of a year... Huntsman-87% Romney-78% Perry/Gingrich-52% Following how much Obama would lose if a recession hit with a -2.7% (same as the 08 recession) and (averaging out the amount of points lost in previous presidencies) Huntsman- 100% Romney- 100% Perry/Gingrich- 98% Following how much Obama usually loses over the course of a year. Also adding in the US just dodging a recession (usually means 1% growth). Note: the Economist predicts that we are on the brink of another recesssion... Huntsman- 95% Romney- 91% Perry/Gingrich- 73% If the economy hit a recession (same as 08 growth) and Obama's approval REMAINED the same... Huntsman- 98% Romney- 95% There are almost zero factual information signs pointing to an improvement of the status quo.
  18. 4 points
    Good point Elliot. Alfonzo, Gallup isn't the best place to look for unemployment stats. Plus, unemployment is generally measured by the amount of people who are unemployed and looking for jobs. A lot of people have given up looking for jobs, so it should be around 10% or 11%. Also, if you want to quote Gallup, then you will find that currently there is an 18% underemployed. 52% of Americans believe economic conditions are poor compared to 9% who think they're good. 69% of Americans think the economy is getting worse. Only 24% think its getting better. Economic confidecne is at a -44. Technically, the recovery that was supposed to happen under the $800 Billion stimulus has not done a huge amount of good. Whether or not it prevented a second recession, I really don't know. Right now, it seems like we're headed to another recession... ...
  19. 4 points
    The policy and issues do relate to the game. Policy and elections are intertwined, without policy how can you understand elections?
  20. 3 points
    Gingrich will win South Carolina, but won't win in the next two states named "Florida" and "Nevada". Those two will probably go for Mitt. THe nomination is solidly with Mitt while South Carolina is leaning Newt.
  21. 3 points
    Not to mention that Romney can always chose a running mate that broadens his appeal.
  22. 3 points
    Romney has developed a fire in his belly as of late. That will be key in convincing voters that he is the guy to take down Obama.
  23. 3 points
    Obama with 59 Democratic Senators and over 250 House Democrats couldn't get the Dream Act passed. Obama gave in and gave the rich (and for the middle class) more tax breaks inexchange for Unemployment???!!! I would have attached the Dream Act, DADT, and the New Start Treaty to it for tax cuts for the Middle Class. If the Republicans refused to agree, then all of the tax cuts would expire and I would say that the Republicans are holding the middle class hostage and my agenda hostage as well.
  24. 3 points
    I meant about doubting Nate Silver's model and then using it when Obama was some decent numbers for a change. We also created many senarios and gave Obama 2.9% growth of GDP.
  25. 3 points
    The American People demand results in the first two years of a Presidency. If that doesn't happen, the other party gets seats in Congress. If the President doesn't fix by his or her's relection, they are done. Even if Obama won, everyone doesn't win...only top 1% wins... when Obama agrees to cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicade, and spending cuts which destroys jobs. When 2014 and 2016, the Republicans could have decent chance to regain the House, the Senate, and White House.
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