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  1. 6 points
    That's a pretty cool idea! It would be fun connecting with other campaigners for a game.
  2. 4 points
    No one views Romney as Hispanic and he has a immigration stance that is unappealing to the majority of Hispanics.
  3. 4 points
    Romney is going to win Florida. There are no more debates, the tax returns are in, and Santorum and Paul did enough damage on Gingrich to hold down Newt.
  4. 4 points
    I'd put it as a Gingrich edge... Rasmussen shows a close race. Other polls how a Gingrich edge. I'm going to say a Gingrich edge whichs means... 60% chance of Gingrich winning 40% chance of Romney winning There also comes into question which candidate does the average voter feel safest with... That's why Paul did so bad... We need to be honest, it takes guts to wear a RonPaul bumper sticker and to vote for him.
  5. 4 points
    If Romney had major problems in his past, we would have seen it already. On a side, Romney did better than McCain did in New Hamshire 2008. Romney will probably win most if not all February contests giving him momemtum to win on Super Tuesday. Romney is the strong leader and slighly more conservative than weak failed leadership of Obama. Romney is the only person who can stop Gingrich. Romney also has the backing of the establishment and that is the only way for a Republican to win the nomination. Gingrich's insane breakdown makes him extremely dangerous to the future America.
  6. 3 points
    Rubio has some appeal to non-Cubans. He would probably lock the Cuban vote in along with Florida. He may give Romney a fighting chance in Nevada and Colorado which Romney desperately needs in order to win the general election. Rubio would also give the Republicans a fresh face (not a white Chirsten male) for 2016 or 2020.
  7. 3 points
    Hey all I've put together a UK 2012 scenario and uploaded it to the board. Let me know what you think, and enjoy. United Kingdom 2012 HB
  8. 3 points
    Thank you! jobs/economy issue should be added.
  9. 3 points
    Romney only lost one race.
  10. 3 points
    Gingrich will win South Carolina, but won't win in the next two states named "Florida" and "Nevada". Those two will probably go for Mitt. THe nomination is solidly with Mitt while South Carolina is leaning Newt.
  11. 3 points
    Non-negotiable values should be defended by the government not kept from the government. Also, the Constitution was put into place to not only provide the Bill of Rights but to allow us to... 1.) Defend ourselves from Foreign Threats 2.) Support our Financial System when needed. 3.) Enable the common welfare. 4.) To collect taxes. Non of these are by definiton a core or moral value, but they are duties given to the government. The Constitution is also a method by which we reform ourselves and keep unmoral politicians in check. Slavery was stopped how? The Constitution. Civil Rights were acknowledged how? The Constitution. The Constitution is the backbone of our governmentand our prosperity.
  12. 3 points
    Romney/Christie http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fau http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fav
  13. 3 points
    According to the IHS, the US Government will see GDP Growth from 1.5% to 2.0% in 2012. Also, calculating how Obama's poll numbers generally fall on a monthly basis, Obama's approval ratings will be at about 35% by Election Day. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/11/03/magazine/538-gdp-election-calculator.html?ref=magazine Nate Silver calculator says that if... GDP Growth: 1.5% Obama Approval: 35% Huntsman has a 93% chance of beating Obama Romney has a 87% chance of beating Obama Okay, what if... GDP Growth: 2.0% Obama Approval: 35% Huntsman 91% chance of beating Obama Romney 83% chance of beating Obama I'll even put Obama at a 42% approval rating... and a 2% economic GDP projected growth... Huntsman 79% Romney 67% I'll even give Obama an additional 0.5% on GDP... Obama approval 42%...GDP projected growth 2.5% Huntsman 74% Romney 61%
  14. 3 points
    It just doesn't seem to be very good idea... August 2012 Pre VP annoucement: Romney favored Romney 53% Obama 42% Post VP annoucement: Obama shocker! Obama leads Romney Obama 53% to Romney 45%
  15. 3 points
    Also Ryan is the 3rd least popular Republican (2nd is Gingrich and 1st is Palin) in the entire country.
  16. 3 points
    Anyway, back to the discussion. Right now, Romney seems likely to win in Iowa and is almost a certain shoe in for New Hampshire. Since that would virtually guarantee him the nomination, here is what I think are the Veeps he will likely choose from... the farther you go down the list, the less likely they will be chosen... 1.) Chris Christie (would add enthusiasm. he has been a fiery backer of romney) 2.) Marco Rubio (if he can be pulled off the bench, he would win over latinos, swingstates and base) 3.) Paul Ryan (would shore up base. Would appeal to Catholic vote and conservatives. Would make the ticket very respectable) 4.) Susana Martinez (would appeal to Latinos and reformers) 5.) John Huntsman (would win over most of moderates and independents. Strong charisma and looks the part.) 6.) Eric Cantor (Would help win over the Jewish vote and a good orator. Would help in swing states) 7.) Newt Gingrich (his debating skill as well as his head knowledge would do well in a debate. Integrity an issue) 8.) Mark Kirk (would help swing over independents. might turn off some in the base.)
  17. 3 points
    Bob McDonnell seems like a good choice since he cannot run for reelection at the end of his current term as Governor of Virginia. Chris Christie needs to stay and fix New Jersey.
  18. 3 points
    I meant about doubting Nate Silver's model and then using it when Obama was some decent numbers for a change. We also created many senarios and gave Obama 2.9% growth of GDP.
  19. 3 points
    I know it is not going to happen, but it would be interesting to study. I think Clinton would help him and would win back some enthusiasm. I think Russ though would be the far better campaigner. Russ is boss when it comes to connecting with the middle class and working class.
  20. 3 points
    Every single challenger to Romney has imploded, Gringrich will implode before Iowa. His baggage will be coming out.
  21. 3 points
    I think that most people were worried about loose nukes and that why we did NEW START.
  22. 3 points
    Climate Change is very real is supported by 96% of scientists http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf We need massive fines for companies who don't obey our regulations and we need tougher regulations to combat climate change now! Planting trees are not enough!If we wait any longer, we are going to cause massive change in the weather which we won't like. Corporations have plenty of money and can be afford to be taxed much higher. They are not going to lay people off because they are making less money. Under President Reagan, Bush, and Clinton we had much higher rates and we had good economies. Under President George W. Bush and Barack Obama, we have unpaid tax cuts and wars that blew a huge hole in our debt. LBJ and Clinton both had balanced budgets. Clinton had budget surpluses (by raising taxes). Both were Democrats. The last Republican president to preside over a balanced budget was Eisenhower. Unless the Republicans are planning on bring back Eisenhower’s policies, they need to shut up about deficits and balanced budgets. Eisenhower’s lowest Marginal tax rate 91%. “Back in the 1980s and 1990s, tax rates for the rich were far higher, and my percentage rate was in the middle of the pack. According to a theory I sometimes hear, I should have thrown a fit and refused to invest because of the elevated tax rates on capital gains and dividends. I didn’t refuse, nor did others. I have worked with investors for 60 years and I have yet to see anyone — not even when capital gains rates were 39.9 percent in 1976-77 — shy away from a sensible investment because of the tax rate on the potential gain. People invest to make money, and potential taxes have never scared them off. And to those who argue that higher rates hurt job creation, I would note that a net of nearly 40 million jobs were added between 1980 and 2000. You know what’s happened since then: lower tax rates and far lower job creation.” -Warren Buffett, 3rd richest person on Earth http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html Engineer Explains Taxes at Occupy Wall Street
  23. 2 points
    Hi POLLWONK! For the primaries, I found that there needs to be a vast amount of undecideds to make the senarios work. For example, candidate A has 35% candidate B has 35% and candidate C has 30%, the numbers don't change have really at all until someone drops out... otherwise the race is a coin toss between candidate A and candidate B. For the General Election mode from primary mode problem, that happens alot if there 1) No primary for one major party and the other one has a one 2) even if the nomination is decided, one computer player stays in and forces me to have "Republican or Democrat" vs "Incumbent" or "Nominee of the other party". By the time they drop out, my opponent has a huge lead and the election is over. Normally I play until the nominees and VP are decided and then start fresh in general election mode. Hope that helps. -Elliot
  24. 2 points
    during the primaries, I think it would be interesting if candidates can drop out of the race (if they know they won't win), and thus allowing more delegates up for grabs. Perhaps the candidates who dropped out could be courted by the remaining candidates in the race
  25. 2 points
    Quick idea regarding themes. Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign was framed almost entirely around the issue of the Economy. Maybe you could change the themes button so you could... 1.) Prioritize what issues matter most. For example, even though healthcare is a big issue in this election, most candidates have Economy higher on their to-do list than Healthcare. While they will still make this a key issue of their campaign, most of the chips lie on Economy. 2.) Decide how much you are going to focus on each of your issue themes. Let's say each campaign recieves a certain number of "Focus Points" (depending on how developed the campaign is). I could either spread my focus points out all across the board, or I could invest them in a few select targets. For example, Romney is focusing most of his attention on the economy. Santorum on the other hand focused more of his points on Social Issues. By creating "Focus Points", it would allow campaigns to develop their messages faster. The number of "Focus Points" each campaign has could be largely contingent upon how developed the campaigns are. 3.) Provide extra speeches for the issues that are prioritized highest on the "Issue Theme" list. The issue that you have defined as the most important should have more than 1 speech. In the end, it would make the campaigns more realistic because the candidate's would have the "Theme" of their campaign settled. They could decide what "big issue" their campaign would most effectively communicate and execute it.
  26. 2 points
    Putin got 90% or something of the Chechnyan vote, LOL should be fun, but good luck.
  27. 2 points
  28. 2 points
    "Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party's 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum's favor if Gingrich dropped out." http://www.gallup.com/poll/153308/Romney-Santorum-Tie-Gingrich-Voters-Second-Choice.aspx
  29. 2 points
    Nancy Pelosi would be an nice addition, but I don't think she will win any states... Wait are you not including Washington?
  30. 2 points
    Nate Silver: "The flip-side is that even if Mr. Santorum starts to win marginal states like Illinois and New Mexico, he still probably won’t have either the delegates or the strongest argument for the nomination. This is why I call Illinois a “must-win” for Mr. Santorum. Winning that state would be about the minimum he’d need to do to put Mr. Romney’s nomination into some real doubt. However, if Mr. Romney takes any further losses than that, the dam would start to break." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/ Santorum needs more than Illinois. I don't see how Santorum wins in California or New York, two of the biggest states left to vote.
  31. 2 points
    That might help, but considering the fact that alot of Hispanic Republicans are Cuban that is not a accurate picture of Latinos. Choseing a Latino for VP could help massively! According to Univision/ABC poll on Latino voters Obama 67% Romney 25% Obama 70% Gingrich 22% Obama 69% Santorum 14% Ads spending for Republicans may help that number go up. About 25% to 33% of Latinos however would change their mind if a Latino was chosen for VP. Governor Susana Martinez might actually be selected. Romney mentioned her name at a Flordia debate. In 2008, Heart Magazine named Martinez “Woman of the Year” for her dedication to children’s advocacy and her efforts to keep children safe. In March 2010, Martinez was named New Mexico's "Prosecutor of the Year" by the Prosecutors Section of the State Bar of New Mexico. Not only is Susana Martinez a Governor, she is Mexican Hispanic rather Cuban Hispanic like Marco Rubio which means is she connects better with Hispanics from Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. Gary Johnson will pose a significant problem for Romney because he is splitting the vote in New Mexico with him.
  32. 2 points
    Palin was and still is a moron. Picking her energized the base until the economy collasped and people figured out Palin was moron, McCain looked like he might actually win. Romney has to appeal to the swing voters instead appealing to base because base will never like him unless he chooses a conservative VP.
  33. 2 points
    First off, should I only include the five parties at all likely to get seats - PC, WRA, Liberal, NDP, and Alberta Party - or should I also include minor parties like the SoCreds, SPA, Communists, Independents, etc.? Second, I'm debating between the Alberta Premier Forever engine (essentially identical to the Canadian PM4E engine, just with bigger swings in percentages in actual play) or the new Canadian PM4E 2011 engine. If the latter were used, I'd need a bit of technical advice on it's actual mechanics. Third, should I offer other candidates from the PC, Liberal, and Alberta Party leadership conventions of last year as alternate leaders, or just have the one actually chosen for each. And fourth and finally, at least for now, is issues. I have a few ideas (see below), but need some advice on other. -Balanced Budget -Economy -Education -Endbridge Pipeline -Environment -Health Care -Oil Sands -Taxation -Transportation -Unemployment
  34. 2 points
    Keep in mind that McCain did not win any of these states (except narrowly Missouri) in 2008. Nevertheless, it is a disappointing reminder that social conservatives still reject Romney (or now see him as the "moderate" that needs to be stopped). Romney handily won Colorado and Minnesota (and narrowly lost Missouri) four years ago.
  35. 2 points
    I am not hoping the great great depression, but it will happen... You obviously didn't read my post, I talked about the end and was kind of depressed about the world is going to end. I welcome good news, but President Obama said unemployment wouldn't rise above 8% and he said if he could not turn this economy around in three years, he would be "looking at one-term proposition" and it would take "more than one President". Obama won't be able to fix fallout from Europe and he had three years to make a difference. Obama is a conversative, he wants to do the grand bargin. As a Progressive there is no point to support Obama over Romney because Obama would destroy the Democratic Party and hurt Progressives. Progressives should hope that Russ Feingold runs in 2016 and becomes that next FDR.
  36. 2 points
    Keep Florida discussion here: http://www.270soft.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=11385&pid=183225&st=0entry183225
  37. 2 points
    I don't think Van Buren needs to included... Harrison? William Henry or Benjamin? Neither one should be included. Put Eisenhower in the game. It would be awesome with Ike. Throw in Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
  38. 2 points
    I agree more with your first diagram... Pennsylvania has been hit so hard by the economic downturn that I think they'll go for Romney in the end. The New England Region will be put into play more than expected. I think Connecticut and Maine will flip along with New Hampshire. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fax
  39. 2 points
    Right now, Romney is on brink of accomplishing something no candidate has ever accomplished. Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire with no incumbent running within the Republican Party. Winning just Iowa or winning just New Hampshire helps secure South Carolina alot. And usually, the more funded candidate as well as the candidate performing best nationally wins South Carolina... 2008 Iowa-Huckabee New Hampshire-McCain South Carolina-McCain 2000 Iowa-Bush New Hampshire-McCain South Carolina- Bush 1996 Iowa-Dole New Hampshire-Buchanan South Carolina-Dole McCain, Bush, and Dole all had much more money and resources than their opponents. Romney won Iowa and is guaranteed to win New Hampshire. That would make him pretty much undefeatable. Also, settling the race THIS EARLY, would put President Obama at a severe disadvantage. After South Carolina and New Hampshire, we'd likely see the following candidates drop out... 1.) Perry (finally...) 2.) Huntsman 3.) Gingrich 4.) Santorum Ron Paul will stay in the race, but it won't do that much good for him. Considering Romney will have the nomination in the bag early, that will allow the Massachusetts Governor several months to arm and gather resources before the Conventions for a massive General Election Spending spree. Also, the GOP has been highly successful in regards to SuperPac fundraising in comparison to Democratic SuperPacs. Romney will be able to save money and gather resources from about now until June for his own campaign. Meanwhile, the SuperPacs will probably launch dozens of attacks on Obama. Obama will in the end be forced to use his own campaign money (because DEM Pacs have lacked enthusiasm) and will have to spend before he wants to. This will force Obama in a hard spot. Either he comes back and counterpunches early yet looses money, or he lets the attacks brew and boil over. Obama will be facing his General Election Challenger alot earlier than he expected.
  40. 2 points
    Yeah. I don't know about Massachusetts (maybe a Democratic edge), but he would certainly make states like Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Ohio be a tossup or lean GOP. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan were all severely plagued by the recession and have struggling economies. Plus, Romney is strong in the northeast where Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine all sit. He would make those tossups. He would weaken other New England states, though I doubt he could win New York or Massachusetts or Vermont.
  41. 2 points
    "Democrats are winning the messaging war on Rep. Paul Ryan’s bid to overhaul Medicare, with a new Bloomberg poll finding 57 percent of Americans believe they would be worse off under his plan. Only 34 percent said they would be better off if Congress replaced “traditional Medicare” with a program to purchase private insurance with government subsidies, as Ryan has proposed. The poll also found Ryan is now the nation’s third most disliked Republican, with net unfavorable ratings that trail only former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. But more than half surveyed said they have no opinion of the Wisconsin Republican." Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57617.html#ixzz1iFLV7M1v
  42. 2 points
    I like those ideas, especially the speaking style one. My only critique is that Obama is more of a "Calm" speaking demeanor than "Motivational". Otherwise, I agree with those recommendations.
  43. 2 points
    In the end, Obama's approval rating will go down. President Obama's approval rating is going up because he sounds like a Progressive even though he is not and will not do Progressive goals before the election. Also the economy is improving somewhat.
  44. 2 points
    Still these are by far are the most predictive models we have now. From Nate Silver http://www.nytimes.c...calculator.html Obama approval 43%...Economic growth 2.9% (projected growth for 2012) Huntsman 65% Romney 53% Gingrich/Perry 29% Bachmann 13% Obama approval 34%... Economic growth 2.9% (projected growth for 2012) Huntsman 84% Romney 75% Gingrich/Perry 51% Bachmann 30% Obama approval 34%... Economic growth -3 Huntman 99% Romney 99% Gingrich/Perry 94% Bachmann 84% Obama approval 34%... Economic growth 1% Huntsman 93% Romney 88% Gingrich/Perry 70% Bachmann 49% Obama approval 25% (averaging out the decrease in a president's popularity when a recession hits)... economic growth -2.7% (same as the 2008 recession) Huntsman 100% Romney 100% Gingrich/Perry 98% Bachmann 94% Obama approval 25%... economic growth -3% Huntsman 100% Romney 100% Gingrich/Perry 98% Bachmann 95%
  45. 2 points
    Im new to this forum. I dont want to sound impatient but is there any updates on President Forever 2012? I heard its based on the Congress Forever 2010 engine which is really nice...
  46. 2 points
    Romney very much as a shot at winning the nomination, but I think beating Gringich will end up hurting him too. As much as I like Ron Paul, I think the Establishment doesn't take his campaign seriously, so him being the next Anti-Romney is slim.
  47. 2 points
    for your information, Doc, this is something thats been going on since you first joined the forum in 2005. Pundits and polls do have weight. This is a political discussion that is weighing not only polls and pundits, but adding economics, foreign policy, domestic policy, and historical precedence into the prediction.
  48. 2 points
    Hey all, So I will formally submit my 2004, 2008, and 2012 Alexandria elections once my laptop is back from the Geek Squad. The 2004 and 2008 (and 1900 for PMF Canada) should require only minor edits but 2012 will require the most effort to do, especially since I'd like a map based off the IRL Alexandria. The following information is for the 2012 scenario and will include random notes of my own. Parties: Liberal Mouvement Democrate Peoples' Democratic Conservative The Greens Issues TBA Regions Geneva Baudrix Greater Edgardia Valenciennes Ibelin Rio Grande San Martin Santander Corvocado Galatia Leifgrad-Baden New Alexandria Luthoria Leon-Venetian Islands
  49. 2 points
    http://www.cbsnews.com/830​1-503544_162-20017666-5035​44.html http://blogs.alternet.org/​refugee/2011/03/21/obamas-​neoliberal-stance-on-chart​er-schools/ http://www.blackagendarepo​rt.com/content/obama-and-c​harter-school-sugar-daddie​s
  50. 2 points
    Not even a leftist like Al Gore could argue that tax hikes stimulate economic growth.
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