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  1. 6 points
    Sorry I didn't see the last sentence for some reason. Yeah theres too much baggage. Its unfortunate because Jeb is a lot smarter than his brother, but his brother essentially disqualified him from ever seeking national office. Also, if he were to be Romney's VEEP there would be the perception among Republicans (who are more sympathetic to the Bush family) that the ticket was in the wrong order. Romney needs to pick someone who won't overshadow him. Also Jeb himself said he wanted Rubio to be the running mate.
  2. 6 points
    270soft is very slow at getting things done, so I would prefer that they focus on completing their core games and then letting modders do the rest.
  3. 6 points
    That's a pretty cool idea! It would be fun connecting with other campaigners for a game.
  4. 5 points
    None of you are objective. You're all trying to manipulate the facts and data to suit what you want to happen. Even trying to make predictions on who is going to win the general election this early would be silly. Right now it seems to be trending for Obama. A few months ago it looked like he was dead in the water a few months from now it may look like that again. It isn't necessarily about the economic data but about how its spun. If unemployment falls below 8%, then we can truly say that the GOP is in trouble. One of Romney's major attacks against Obama is that he promised that if we passed the stimulus unemployment would be below 8%. Well, if it does drop below 8%, Obama can easily claim that what he has done has worked, it just took a little longer. Not only that, he'll drop the populist tax the rich routine, which could further help the economy because he's no longer scaring the people who create jobs in this country. On the flip side, one bit of bad economic data from anywhere in the world could put Obama right back where he was last year. If the unemployment rate creeps up for some reason, even if its by very little and even if the general trend shows it going down, the GOP can once again use it to say Obama's policies have failed. Many things can make this happen. Hell it could even be a statistical anomaly, it could be a war in the middle east or something happening in Europe or even another debt showdown. So much of how people vote, and how people behave economically depends on expectations and the general mood of the country. Since people tend to give the president way too much credit/blame for what is happening, the economic climate is probably going to dictate the election results. That being said, what's going on in the primary season is hurting Romney. Its making him run to the right on issues that should never even be discussed, and the question becomes whether he can get back to the center in a reasonable way that doesn't make the flip flopper image worse. McCain had this problem in 2008. The most visible of these shifts to the right has been on immigration. Romney has always been a relative moderate on the issue, but his opponents dragged him to the right. Latinos are going to be crucial this year and if he alienates them he has no chance. He can mediate that by picking Marco Rubio, who I think is his best choice. At the end of the day, the base is going to come for him anyway. Rubio soothes some of the fears of not only the Latino, but of the Tea Party, who he is worshiped by. Theres a perception that Romney is going to have trouble with the base during the GE. That's simply not true. The base isn't voting for Romney because Santorum is such an attractive candidate to them. Not only that, the base is dwindling. The Tea Party is arguably the largest faction in the GOP right now. That being said, Romney is still pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, pro-gun etc. Or he claims to be. The base will vote for Romney because no matter how they look at it he's better than Obama on almost every issue to them. Romney's greatest problem is not allowing Santorum to pull him too far to the right, and picking a running mate who will alleviate some of the problems the candidate can't alleviate some of the problems the candidate can't fix themselves. Even though Romney shouldn't worry too much about the right-wing of the party he still can go so far to the center that they simply don't turn out. However, the likelihood of the right-wing running away from him if he moves too far to the center is far less than the independents running away from him if he moves to far to the right. And unlike the base/right/Tea Party/whatever, the independents will go to Obama. So Romney needs to move to the center, and hope his running mate can sooth the concerns of the right, while at the same time appealing to some key demographics. And who can do that? Marco Rubio. He gives you excites the Tea Party, he's acceptable to the base (if they'll vote for a Mormon they'll vote for someone who used to be), and he will win some Latinos. Picking Rubio can maximize Romney's chance of winning but at the end of the day the economy will still determine who wins the election. Not necessarily the raw economic data, but the perception, and the manipulation by both parties.
  5. 5 points
    First off, the 10% lead you are citing came from Rasmussen. You have repeatedly called Rasmussen an unreliable and corrupted agency for polling in the past. I agree. That's why I don't care what Rasmussen Says. Also note that the Associated Press poll showing Obama with an 8 point lead tracks everyone, even if they aren't registered or likely voters. So you aren't seeing the real picture by asking everyone. I know a lot of unregistered voters out there. The other polls which show either a 4-2% Obama Lead or a 2% Romney lead poll either registered or likely voters. That would be the more accurate sampling.
  6. 5 points
    Ayatollah Khamenei has the real power in Iran. He controls the goverment.
  7. 5 points
    Very true. I generally stay out of political discussions/debates on here because from past personal experiences on other forums I know that such discussions online do have a bad tendency to get ugly. That said, I agree with you completely. A reputation system on a forum like this may not be the greatest idea, but since it's here I think the fact that there are several of us that don't want to see our reputations dragged down shouldn't just be dismissed. I actually try not to be abusive of the plus or minus buttons. If i find a post helpful I'll plus it, or again, if it's derogatory, or intentionally inflammatory, etc., I'll minus it. Truth be told, if the whole thing can be stopped without a ban, I'm fine with that. That would probably even be preferable. To me this forum is a place to come for fun because I love these games, and I think it's awesome that there are other people here who love that kind of thing as much as I do. Personally, I'd like for this to just be a fun place to come to and talk about the games, design scenarios, and discuss our results. Let's keep it that way!
  8. 5 points
  9. 4 points
    The 2012 Senate scenario is missing Elizabeth Warren as a candidate against Scott Brown in Massachusetts. FYI.
  10. 4 points
    Greetings! Since there hasn't been a scenario based off this historical event, I have decided to create "United States 1948" for P4E2008. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to be building up the scenario and researching information. And additional help would be greatly appeciated. I will also be adding a new form of leader activity called "Whistlestop Campaigning". Whistlestop campaigning was Harry Truman's primary method of convincing the populace and beating Dewey in 1948... Here is the current candidate's list Republican: Gov. Thomas Dewey Sen. Robert Taft Gov. Harold Stassen Gov. Earl Warren Gen. Douglas MacArthur Sen. Arthur Vandenberg Possible: Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower Sen. Wendell Wilkie Gov. John Bricker Spkr. Joseph William Martin Jr. Democratic Pres. Harry S. Truman Sen. Richard Russell Possible: Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower Ch. James Roosevelt Sen. Claude Pepper States Rights Democratic (Dixiecrat) Gov. Strom Thurmond Progressive Party Vice President Henry Wallace Any additional candidates are welcome! please give your imput on the candidates and their attribute ratings. Thanks!
  11. 4 points
    Create 2 ads attacking Thatcher's integrity and 2 attacking Foot's leadership. Don't run any of them until there's 1 day to go then run all of them everywhere. This plan could as easily go wrong but if it works you'll get into the highscores.
  12. 4 points
    I decided to make a scenario for the French 2012 Presidential Election. I hope to have it up at the earliest April 22, the latest May 6... I am about halfway done. I am currently researching information on the voting trends of the French districts. I could use some input on the candidate list... this is what I have so far, but I could use some help here... My candidate list... Socialist... Francois Hollande... L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3 Martine Aubry... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4 Segolene Royal... L-4...I-3...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-5...D-2 Arnaud Montebourg... L-3...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3 Manuel Valls... L-3...I-3...E-2...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-3 Dominque Strauss Kahn (off) ... L-4...I-2...E-5...IF-3...C-4...S-3...D-3 UMP Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-5 Alain Juppe... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-4 Any additional help would be greatly appreciated!!!
  13. 4 points
    Yeah, must have been a glitch... aparently some overtly bored person couldn't resist giving red reputation marks on our posts... maybe he should volunteer to help out with this scenario instead of being a nutjob with the reputation button. Yeah, I am going to include the following parties... Union for Movement Popular Socialist Democratic Movement Left Front National Front The obvious candidates are... UMP: President Nicolas Sarkozy Xavier Bertrand (off) Socialist Francois Hollande Martine Aubry Segolene Royal Arnaud Montebourg Manuel Valls Jean Michel Baylet Dominique Strauss Kahn (off) Laurent Fabius (off) Henri Emmanuelli (off) National Front Marine Le Pen Jean Marie Le Pen (off) Democratic Movement Francois Bayrou Jean Arthuis (off) Left Front Jean Luc Melenchon Helene Franco Any help with candidate ratings would be appreciated!
  14. 4 points
    I'm pretty sure he was referring to the affluent left wing progressives who like to think they can tell people how to live their lives. The democratic establishment if you will.
  15. 4 points
    Even if Jeb Bush was an above average Governor and even if he has more brain mass than his brother, he will still be an unpopular pick. George W Bush got elected in 2000 when the Bush name was actually a good name. Remember, George Sr. left office as America's Most Admired Man according to Gallup EVEN THOUGH HE LOST REELECTION. George W. Bush had a fairly good stint as Governor of Texas, but was vastly underprepared to lead the nation. By the way, why on earth would the upper class hate the Bushes when 80% of his tax cuts were given to them?
  16. 4 points
    Both of them work. I don't know much about Martinez though. She doesn't seem particularly intelligent. She's also much tougher on immigration than Rubio, and Romney and his running mate are going to have to run to the center on that issue. I think wooing Hispanics/women/independents is more important than shoring up the base.
  17. 4 points
    Even if Gingrich won both states, he still has to prove that he is not just a deep Southern candidate.
  18. 4 points
    Whatever the reason, Obama's head-to-head general election numbers have dropped in the month of March after peaking in February. Romney has taken his biggest lead against Obama in Rasmussen tracking with a 6-point lead. http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/03/obama_falling_romney_leads_48-42_in_rasmussen_poll.html
  19. 4 points
    Perry is too old with the baggage of this past campaign. He would be a media distraction. Romney will need a fresh younger face (relatively).
  20. 4 points
    No one views Romney as Hispanic and he has a immigration stance that is unappealing to the majority of Hispanics.
  21. 4 points
    What do you mean by religiously crazy?
  22. 4 points
    Hey guys, Since the economy is going to be the biggest issue of 2012, here is a forum to discuss the issue and how it will play out!
  23. 4 points
    So onwards to more favorable Romney states!
  24. 4 points
    Romney is going to win Florida. There are no more debates, the tax returns are in, and Santorum and Paul did enough damage on Gingrich to hold down Newt.
  25. 4 points
    There was no point before the last debate for Romney to take control. He was not in "trouble". Romney never knew his main opponent was before Gingrich won South Carolina. Now that Romney knows who is his main opponent, he can lazer focus his attacks on Gingrich, assert himself again, and seize control of the debate.
  26. 4 points
    Romney's a good debater. Gingrich will probably fall in Florida because Romney will bash him with a 2X4. Rommey was not like Bachmann, Perry, Cain, or Gingrich surges. Romney was Romney and others were anti Romney. Romney has been #1 or #2. Santorum and Romney tied in Iowa and votes weren't properly counted. Fact of the matter is we predicted Romney would win South Carolina right after New Hampshire think Romney would get a bounce from his win which was prefectly reasonable at the time and we didn't just make a prediction a day before the primary. Speaking of wrong predictions here is one: Alfonzo:"If Romney wins Iowa, he loses the nomination, because some of the candidates will drop out, allowing one candidate to consolidate their vote and overtake Romney. If Romney loses Iowa, he loses the nomination, because another candidate wins Iowa, gains momentum to win South Carolina and Florida, and maybe put up a fight in New Hampshire, and consolidates the vote from some of the other candidates who drop out. If Paul wins Iowa and puts up a fight in New Hampshire, that might be Romney's only bet to win the nomination. It might push all the conservatives to drop out, leaving voters to choose between two candidates they don't like. A long and bloody primaries will follow, and Obama wins the presidency . In my opinion, the 8 vote win will probably hurt Romney more than help. And Santorum's huge last-minute surge will definitely give him the momentum to secure South Carolina and Florida, particularly after Perry departs from the race. Paul underperformed relative to his supporters expectations. He'll probably suffer a big hit to his momentum after this."
  27. 4 points
    I'd put it as a Gingrich edge... Rasmussen shows a close race. Other polls how a Gingrich edge. I'm going to say a Gingrich edge whichs means... 60% chance of Gingrich winning 40% chance of Romney winning There also comes into question which candidate does the average voter feel safest with... That's why Paul did so bad... We need to be honest, it takes guts to wear a RonPaul bumper sticker and to vote for him.
  28. 4 points
    If Romney had major problems in his past, we would have seen it already. On a side, Romney did better than McCain did in New Hamshire 2008. Romney will probably win most if not all February contests giving him momemtum to win on Super Tuesday. Romney is the strong leader and slighly more conservative than weak failed leadership of Obama. Romney is the only person who can stop Gingrich. Romney also has the backing of the establishment and that is the only way for a Republican to win the nomination. Gingrich's insane breakdown makes him extremely dangerous to the future America.
  29. 4 points
    I'd say that is true. I think the opposing candidate's strengths and weaknesses should play a role in it, but I think your observation is a good one.
  30. 4 points
    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fau the economy didn't get much better http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=fav if the economy improved somewhat significantly
  31. 4 points
    Even if I was, you haven't given me or anyone else a reason on this forum NOT to believe in what I have said. I am waiting for you to release your own interpretation of the study... like you said, it is "very open to interpretation". So what do you interpret, magician? I was citing factual numbers and averaging out his tendencies.
  32. 4 points
    Harry Truman (Democratic) and George Bush I (Republican) should definitely be in there. Truman influenced U.S. foreign policy for the Cold War and the next 45 years. After Bush lost to Clinton, the economy improved and he left office with 56% approval rating.
  33. 4 points
    Romney could do so well in South Carolina, he could possibly win all 50 states in the primary.
  34. 4 points
    Mitt Romney is in good shape: he is still the presumptive nominee, he is going to win New Hampshire, and John McCain who won New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida endorsed Romney. Romney's SuperPac will start running ads against Santorum and will crush him. There is no evidence that Romney will automaticly lose South Carolina if Gingrich stays in (social conservatives will split the vote like in Iowa) and in Florida where Romney will do better than in South Carolina. Also Rick Perry only has about 6% support in South Carolina, so it may not have as big as impact as you say it will.
  35. 4 points
    May I propose a ceasefire? I think Christie would be a great choice for Romney. And he has said that he is interested and willing to consider.
  36. 4 points
    I still think it will be Rubio, but if it is not Rubio, it will be Christie. Paul Ryan wants to privatize Medicare which is political suicide which may cost Romney the election if Ryan was chosen.
  37. 4 points
    Name: Al Gore Party: Democratic State: Tennessee Title: Vice President Atributes - L-4…I-3…E-4…IF-4…C-2…S-5…D-3 Name: John McCain Party: Republican State: Arizona Title: Senator Atributes - L-4…I-4…E-4…IF-4…C-4…S-3…D-4
  38. 4 points
    That was fast! http://mittromney.com/embed/video/new-captain
  39. 4 points
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/jon-huntsmans-path-to-victory/
  40. 4 points
    The Republican Establishment is giving Jon Huntsman a second look. http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/12/opinion/avlon-huntsman/index.html
  41. 4 points
    Using Nate Silver's model and applying the stats I did in my previous post... Following how much Obama usually loses over the course of a year... Huntsman-87% Romney-78% Perry/Gingrich-52% Following how much Obama would lose if a recession hit with a -2.7% (same as the 08 recession) and (averaging out the amount of points lost in previous presidencies) Huntsman- 100% Romney- 100% Perry/Gingrich- 98% Following how much Obama usually loses over the course of a year. Also adding in the US just dodging a recession (usually means 1% growth). Note: the Economist predicts that we are on the brink of another recesssion... Huntsman- 95% Romney- 91% Perry/Gingrich- 73% If the economy hit a recession (same as 08 growth) and Obama's approval REMAINED the same... Huntsman- 98% Romney- 95% There are almost zero factual information signs pointing to an improvement of the status quo.
  42. 4 points
    Good point Elliot. Alfonzo, Gallup isn't the best place to look for unemployment stats. Plus, unemployment is generally measured by the amount of people who are unemployed and looking for jobs. A lot of people have given up looking for jobs, so it should be around 10% or 11%. Also, if you want to quote Gallup, then you will find that currently there is an 18% underemployed. 52% of Americans believe economic conditions are poor compared to 9% who think they're good. 69% of Americans think the economy is getting worse. Only 24% think its getting better. Economic confidecne is at a -44. Technically, the recovery that was supposed to happen under the $800 Billion stimulus has not done a huge amount of good. Whether or not it prevented a second recession, I really don't know. Right now, it seems like we're headed to another recession... ...
  43. 4 points
    The policy and issues do relate to the game. Policy and elections are intertwined, without policy how can you understand elections?
  44. 3 points
    Could Mitt Romney be America's first Hispanic President? http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/12/opinion/romney-hispanic-roots/index.html If elected Romney could be considered the first Hispanic President, he may or may not win the a majority of the Hispanic Vote. He needs another Hispanic and the ticket to bring the Hispanic Vote in.
  45. 3 points
    Gingrich will win South Carolina, but won't win in the next two states named "Florida" and "Nevada". Those two will probably go for Mitt. THe nomination is solidly with Mitt while South Carolina is leaning Newt.
  46. 3 points
    Maybe you could add in the Doles, Bob and Elizabeth... that would be funny, husband and wife quarrel. Throw in the Clintons as well...
  47. 3 points
    Not to mention that Romney can always chose a running mate that broadens his appeal.
  48. 3 points
    Romney has developed a fire in his belly as of late. That will be key in convincing voters that he is the guy to take down Obama.
  49. 3 points
    Obama with 59 Democratic Senators and over 250 House Democrats couldn't get the Dream Act passed. Obama gave in and gave the rich (and for the middle class) more tax breaks inexchange for Unemployment???!!! I would have attached the Dream Act, DADT, and the New Start Treaty to it for tax cuts for the Middle Class. If the Republicans refused to agree, then all of the tax cuts would expire and I would say that the Republicans are holding the middle class hostage and my agenda hostage as well.
  50. 3 points
    I meant about doubting Nate Silver's model and then using it when Obama was some decent numbers for a change. We also created many senarios and gave Obama 2.9% growth of GDP.
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