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  2. One of the busiest designs I know was ironically made briefly in the 16th century. It's the banner of the Pilgrimage of Grace, an uprising in medieval England.
  3. Wiw

    Will Trump Drop out?

    We already know he won't.
  4. It shouldn't make too much of a difference, really.
  5. Today
  6. Yeah anything short of Michelle Obama seems like a liability. Like I said Demmings is an unknown, Harris has a controversial background, Warren might be looked at as too far left. Brown makes the most sense. Hell 5-10% of Republicans would vote Biden if John Kaisch was the guy. It would turn off the far left but win said Republicans and he would win independents. To me the pledge to nominating a woman was a reach but was said because he was down 0-3 with super tuesday looming.
  7. Yes it was a mistake. Before you make such a decision, you should vet all options you consider the best. The most qualified person might not necessarily be a (black) woman.
  8. Committing to a woman VP early unified the Democratic Party post-primary and has kept activist women members of the party engaged, such as Warren supporters. Also, it's just the right thing to do.
  9. That's probably a good idea, and it's not like the RP was exactly active before hand anyway. This RP is officially in hiatus, until we can find more players to make both primary races competitive.
  10. Hey guys, game is great but just had a few questions. 1) Why does my EP seem to drain so much during 1 turn at a time vs a week? I rally twice and use 4cp / 9cp and still sometimes lose energy but if I do a week full of rallying with barely any CP left over, why my energy stays stable? 2) How do I get undecideds over the line? Im winning in the polls in lets say Iowa by 4, but some random dude (Webb/O'Malley) come in and get 15% more than what the polls forecasted? My theory is that they are getting all the undecided but I have decent momentum and org strength so im not sure why im getting destroyed so bad (+10) 3) Is the beta worth playing since there are no saves for them? Thanks!
  11. I'm not as familiar with CI but I'm sure those are quite easy to do.
  12. Go go go Patine! You can do it! We believe in you!
  13. Well I'm not trying to convince you I admit I have some bias but I don't think there's anything wholly unreasonable about it.
  14. RCP excludes a lot of good polls. Use the FiveThirtyEight polls, which also includes RCP. The rest of what you say is not convincing, except for where you say Trump needs to expand his base.
  15. He’s chameleon enough to still become a Senator (not in CA. He’d move.) I don’t think he’d be president. Maybe VP.
  16. @WVProgressive I think we should wait and see if anyone else wants to join, I’m not exactly eager to campaign when the primary is basically unopposed,
  17. Do people outside of the Ron Paul supporters and maybe Bernie Sanders supporters actually care about cabinet positions though? I mean I find it hard to believe the deciding vote for Biden will be because Brown will have a cabinet position. I think he has much less baggage among hot button issues than Harris does. Gabbard who's a no name candidate pretty much destroyed her on some pretty important issues to progressives.
  18. Well, at least he's named actual, known possibilities for the role, and hinted at others for Cabinet and other positions more obliquely and by intimation, even if some, like Harris, are REALLY bad ideas - in contrast to Romney in 2012 and his infamous "folders full of women," - which sounds suspiciously like admitting to frequenting "escort services," and "gentleman's clubs."
  19. Atleast so early on. I get it Hillary lost the white woman vote to Trump but I think that had more to do with who she is as a person. The way I see it is I dont think someone like Kamala Harris does much for the ticket infact could be a negative. Cal Demming sp? Is a good choice but is widely unknown, I really dont think Warren is in consideration but who knows. I think Sherrod Brown would be an excellent VP pick. While Biden is ahead in the rust belt I cant help but think how much further he would be ahead with a guy like Brown who is also popular in progressive circles and could help fill a void. Thoughts?
  20. Traditional tendencies? This is an unprecedented event of immense proportions and incalculable impact, and you're just dismissing it off-hand and declaring the metric of "traditional tendencies," is far more important?
  21. Not consistently. I took a quick look at OH, PA, FL, AZ, TX, MI, and NC. The RCP averages for those states right now are: 0, -6.5, -5, -3.5, +2.5, -7.5, -3.3 respectively. And only in Ohio is there a recent downward trend. Minnesota, a state I was hoping would turn red this year is at -16.5 but there hasn't been much there and the most recent poll is a month old. Only looking at the polls in the last 30 days, Florida ranges from -6 to even. Ohio has only one poll which is -1. PA and MI do look worrisome, ranging from -10 to -5 and -13 to -1 respectively. Wisconsin is all over the place, everywhere from -11 to +1. North Carolina -9 to +3, Arizona -7 to +4. Those last three are all over the place, but I can't find any state that's consistently down by much more than 6. I also think that NH and NV, two states Trump lost narrowly, are in play, but there's been very little polling there. I'd say they're in reach. NJ is another interesting case. Obviously that's in the bag for the Democrats so there aren't any polls being done there. If there's going to be a surprise flip, those are the states they're going to come from. New Jersey, up until Phil Murphy's election in 2017, had Republican governors for 24 of the previous 32 years, it's more purple than people think. Can Trump win it? Probably not, I'd give 10% odds maybe. But states like MN, NJ, CO even NM can be in play, particularly if he continues to make gains among blacks and Hispanics. Biden MUST get at least 85% of the black vote. And Trump is polling 30-40% among Blacks. Rasmussen has him at 40% among Blacks. Rasmussen does tend to skew Republican, so let's assume it's 30-35%. That's still substantial and may just about take Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania almost out of play for Biden. And 32% would be four times what he got in 2016. I am very disappointed at the lack of reaching out that he seems to be doing to those communities. 40+ among Blacks and 35+ among Hispanics are reaches, but either one of them would be devastating for Democrats. A lot of his drops recently have been coming from Republicans, because Democrats can't poll that much lower. Partisan voters tend to coalesce around their candidate as things get close to November. Trump absolutely HAS to expand his base, which I don't see him doing enough of and it concerns me. But Biden basically has no base. He is what we call an "empty suit", doesn't really have any strong principles or loyal fan base. He's doing well as long as he stays in the basement but he can't do that forever. Trump's best polling swing states right now are FL, NC, AZ, and OH, all of which have positive polls recently. If we put those in his column that gives Trump 260. From that point, Biden would need to win Michigan AND Wisconsin AND Pennsylvania. Certainly possible but far from a sure thing. This is far from a certainty and you'd have to be a fool to think these numbers are good for Trump. I'd feel comfortable if the majority of polls are -3 or better. But I said that worry time comes when "consistently" down by 8 or more and I can't find a swing state where that's the case. And in some of them he's had recent leads. Between margins of error and the other things mentioned, I don't consider Trump truly down if it's by less than 4 points, or in trouble unless we consistently (that's the key word) see deficits of 8 or more. After Labor Day that cutoff may go to 6 or 5. Let's remember the original topic of this thread. "Will Trump drop out?" These are hardly cataclysmic numbers worthy of a party dumping its candidate or a candidate simply giving up. Trump can absolutely win, it's really up to him if he gets more Presidential, stays on the positive and gets the messaging out, differentiating himself from Biden. Will that happen is the big question. While there's an uphill climb for sure, I truly believe it's his to lose. You can look at the polling methodologies and see that they underpoll Republicans. I've run the numbers and statistical simulations on these, and if 1 out of 10 Trump voters, out of fear of cancel culture, or feeling intimidated, not wanting to say so to a pollster (Bradley effect), if 1 of 10 lie, that alone is a 4 point swing. Yes, 1/10 is a guess, but I think a modest one. We could run a simulation on a "typical" swing state, assuming 40% independent, and the other 60% slightly skewed Democrat. Then I did the math on a skewed poll where the 1/10 lied as I said above, and Republicans were under-polled by 1 point. The result went from a true Trump deficit of 2 to a poll deficit of 14! I'll post the calculations at some later time. Yes a lot of this is speculation and guess work, but even tiny amounts of under-polling and "Bradley effect" can make a HUGE difference in poll results. As someone trained in the field of statistics, I can assure you that anyone can take any poll numbers and make it say anything they want to, even if all the data is gathered honestly. There are so many ways to screw up a poll, even unintentionally.
  22. However, I do also want to say, to make my full view on things clear. I usually, by default, in ideal circumstances, believe other people deserve a modicum of respect, and I don't believe in DELIBERATELY going out and offending one for one's demographic (it can happen inadvertently, but doing it deliberately, even as "humour," is just poor taste and reflects VERY poorly on the one doing it - though it shouldn't be illegal, only frowned on sternly). When I make posts or statements that I know will offend (and everyone on these forums knows I can, and have done, it), I do so based on something they've said or done that I view as offensive, repugnant, or incendiary at the time - as individual people, not their demographic. However, political correctness, as it's currently become, has made it very difficult for people to interact with each other, and has actually impeded the whole public socio-political dialogue.
  23. Thanks it's an interesting post and I'm not sure how it will play out til we see actual results. Do you have one regarding the economy? I think atleast traditionally tends to be more telling.
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